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中国、印度和俄罗斯除外,还有哪个国家最有可能成为美国那样的超级大国

来源:  BBSGood社区    时间:2019-08-03 08:30:06   关注:131   转发


Excluding China, India, and Russia, which country has the greatest potential to become the world's next superpower in the way that the United States is an economic and military superpower?


中国、印度和俄罗斯除外,还有哪个国家最有可能成为像美国那样的下一个全球经济军事超级大国?


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以下是Quora读者的评论:


Ravi Thatté, worked at China


Superpower is an expression that generally means a combination of economic and military power.


The importance of the ability to fight wars had been declining steadily over the last few decades until China laid claims to a lot of areas in the South China Sea.


In this aspect, the decks are stacked in favour of the existing military superpowers, who are also the producers of war goods and no other country can start late and take over this leadership. The existing powers will also not allow that to happen.


If it comes to economic power, BRICS is the reply, so if we take away China, India, Russia we are left with Brazil and South Africa.


Both these countries have abundant natural resources. Both suffer from - how to put it delicately - inadequate governments. They will probably need some expertise to help them grow. They are certainly capable of becoming economic powerhouses.


But they cannot progress beyond economic strength; they would still have to rely on external supplies to gain military strength and that is a disqualifier ab initio for getting a superpower status.


超级大国通常是指经济实力和军事实力的结合。


在过去几十年里,作战能力的重要性一直在稳步下降,直到中国宣称对南中国海的许多地区拥有主权。


在这方面,形势有利于现有的军事超级大国,他们同时也是军备生产国,任何其他国家都无法插手这一领域。现有大国也不会允许这种情况发生。


如果谈到经济实力,金砖四国就是答案,因此,如果我们把中国、印度、俄罗斯排除在外,只剩下巴西和南非。


这两个国家都有丰富的自然资源。这两个国家都面临着——委婉地说吧——政府能力不足的问题。他们可能需要一些专业知识来帮助他们成长。他们当然有能力成为经济强国。


但它们的发展不能超越经济实力;他们仍将依靠外部供应来获得军事实力,而这从一开始就不符合获得超级大国地位的资格。


 


Nikhil Sharma, Proud Indian


I am surprised no one mentioned Germany


Education:


→ Free education including university degree


→ Amazing Research facilities


→ German is the third most commonly taught language worldwide


Diplomacy and World Relations:


→ Superb diplomatic Relations (Best Passport to have )


→ German Army (Bundeswehr) is the second largest in EU and is among top-10 best funded forces in the world. 


→ GDP is strong (One of the major Economies in the EU)


→ has an important role in international issues


我很惊讶没有人提到德国


教育:


免费教育,包括大学学位


→惊人的研究设施


德语是世界上第三常用的教学语言


外交与世界关系:


卓越的外交关系(最好的护照)


德国陆军是欧盟第二大军队,也是世界上资金最充裕的10支军队之一。


GDP强劲(欧盟主要经济体之一)


在国际事务中发挥着重要的作用


Development:


→ Best Transport System (trains on time, high speed connectivity, moreover there is no speed limit on nearly 65% of highway)


→ Highest recycling rate(nearly 70%)- need to use renewable products to sustain


→ Skilled Labor & Workers Rights (unemployed workers in Germany are entitled to redundancy pay of a month’s wages for every year they’ve worked at a company)


→ Outstanding record in the Olympics (Second country in total no. of medals only after USA)


→ Home to Companies like- Siemens, Daimler, Volkswagen, Adidas, BMW etc.


发展:


→最好的交通系统(火车准点,高速连接,近65%的高速公路没有限速)


最高资源回收率(近70%)-需要使用可再生产品来维持


熟练工人和工人全利(德国失业工人在公司工作一年,有权获得相当于一个月工资的遣散费)


→在奥运会上取得优异的成绩。仅次于美国


→西门子、戴姆勒、大众、阿迪达斯、宝马等公司的总部所在地。


 


Thomas Edward, Geopolitic & Tech, Research in US, China, India & Asia.


1.Excluding China, India, and Russia,


2.Which country has the greatest potential to become the world's next superpower


3.In the way that the United States is an economic and military superpower?


So with these 3 conditions, it will be certainly Germany lead EU after Brexit(US Trojan horse). Why?


Both Economy & Military superpower need scale of population & highest technology to achieve. Size does matter. This one has all the right combinations.


译文来源:三泰虎  http://www.santaihu.com/48156.html 译者:Joyceliu


1.不考虑中国、印度和俄罗斯


2.哪个国家最有潜力成为下一个全球超级大国


3.像美国那样的经济和军事超级大国


因此,有了这三个条件,脱欧后德国肯定会成为欧盟的领头羊。为什么?


无论是经济超级大国还是军事超级大国,都需要人口规模和最高科技才能实现。规模很重要。德国具备一切优势因素。


 


Surabhi Shivmath, I Am a Millenial (1992-present)


Israel.


Edit: Couldn’t write a good answer since i tried typing on mobile with bad internet. Anywho, here is my answer as to why Israel has a great potential to become worlds’ next superpower.


First, lets understand what power means w.r.t international relations. There is no well defined or commonly accepted definition to it,however, most of us generally measure it in terms of military and economic power.Power could also be described in terms of influence over other nations within international system or as security (i.e the ability to protect itself from repeated or significant challenges).


So, why Israel?


Entrepreneurship


Ever since the advent of Jews into Israel, the nation has been under threat by each and every neighbor it is surrounded with(namely, Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq). This has forced Israel to foster an environment of strong defense culture combined with innovation.Now, the unique thing about Israel Defense Forces(IDF) is its unhierarchical culture which allows junior officers to continuously evolve and are even allowed to question their senior officers. This fosters equal opportunity and evolution of creative solution to pressing problems. This is the reason why a country of 7 million has been able to churn out second largest start-ups in the world next to USA(recently, India overtook Israel, however India has a population of 1.2 billion). Also, Israel has the largest number of companies listed in NASDAQ next to USA, and greater than EU. This could translate into economic power if Israel goes in the right direction(i.e improve its image and international relations with other countries).


以色列。


编辑:用手机打的字,网络又很差,写得不好请见谅。我的答案是以色列,以及为什么以色列有成为世界下一个超级大国的巨大潜力。


首先,让我们来了解国际关系中的实力是什么意思。它没有明确的定义或普遍接受的定义,然而,我们大多数人通常用军事和经济实力来衡量。实力也可以被描述为对国际体系内其他国家的影响力或安全(保护自己不受重复或重大挑衅的能力)。


那么,为什么是以色列?


企业家精神


自从犹太人来到以色列,这个国家就一直受到邻国(约旦、叙利亚、埃及、沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克)的威胁。这迫使以色列培育一个强大的国防文化与创新相结合的环境。现在,以色列国防军的独特之处在于它的无等级文化,允许下级军官不断晋升,甚至允许质疑他们的高级军官。这给大家带来了平等的机会和创造性的解决方案。这就是为什么一个拥有700万人口的国家能够打造出仅次于美国的世界第二大初创企业(最近,印度超过了以色列,但印度人口有12亿)。此外,以色列在纳斯达克上市的公司数量仅次于美国,超过欧盟总和。如果以色列走在正确的方向上,这将转化为经济实力(改善自身形象和国际关系)。


Agriculture


Unlike India, Israel was(or is?) not gifted with resourceful and rich land. Israel is nothing but mostly desert. Yet, this did not stop them from becoming major exporter of fresh produce or from being a world leader in agriculture technology. They are independent when it comes to food as well as water.They pioneered drip-irrigation, hydroponic and various other types of farming. This makes them unbeatable w.r.t food, agriculture and water management.


We give very little credit to how Israel has affected our lives. From google suggest(the drop down box that predicts your search) to Intel Duo 2 microprocessors that changed the face of chips design, to drip irrigation that changed the face of agriculture throughout the world,Israel sure is one hell of a powerful country(and a superpower in making!).


-Source


Wikipedia


农业


与印度不同的是,以色列没有(或现在没有)天生拥有资源丰富的土地。以色列只有沙漠。然而,这并没有阻止他们成为新鲜农产品的主要出口国或成为世界农业技术的领导者。他们在食物和水方面都是自给自足的。他们开创了滴灌、水培和各种其他农业耕作方法。这使得他们在粮食、农业和水资源管理方面无懈可击。


我们几乎没怎么意识到以色列如何影响了我们的生活。从谷歌建议(预测搜索结果的下拉框)到改变芯片设计面貌的英特尔Duo 2微处理器,再到改变全球农业面貌的滴灌技术,以色列无疑是一个超级大国(也是制造业的超级大国!)


来源


维基百科


 


Shrinivas S, Bharatiya


Q:Excluding China, India, and Russia, which country has the greatest potential to become the world's next superpower?


In the way that the United States is an economic and military superpower, what is the country that has the greatest potential to attain that status and when can we expect that it will?


A: I do not think- India, China or Russia are superpowers today, maybe 15 years later China may become one and 25 years later India has a chance to become one. Russia is not a superpower today and difficult for it to become one again.


But there are regional powers that be that can be formed-


问:除中国、印度和俄罗斯外,哪个国家最有潜力成为世界下一个超级大国?


鉴于美国是一个经济和军事超级大国,那么哪个国家最有潜力获得这一地位?需要多久?


答:我认为今天的印度、中国和俄罗斯还不是超级大国,也许15年后中国会成为超级大国,25年后印度有机会成为超级大国。如今的俄罗斯已经不再是超级大国,要想再次成为超级大国也很困难。


但是有一些地区性的力量是可以形成的。


1.Brazil in South America- Rich in natural resources, huge size, plentiful food, sun, beaches, coastline, water, nature. Brazil is the regional hegemon (already it is one) of South America as it controls nearly half the total land area of South America and retains the Portuguese language despite all other South and Central American countries being Spanish speaking.


2.South Africa- Long Coast line, good amount of natural resources, rich in farm, food, water and sun. Has the power to become the regional hegemon of Southern part of Africa (already is to an extent).


3.Indonesia- Largest country by size and population in South-East Asia, Muslim country with a history of functioning democracy (to an extent), no major religious schism (there are problems), lot of sun, coastline, sand, some natural resources. Can become a power in South-East Asia (already is attempting to become).


4.Egypt- More or less most powerful and most populated Arab country, has plentiful water due to the Nile delta unlike other Arab nations, if it solves its internal trouble can become the hegemon of West Asia and Northern Africa (like it was historically).


Summary- These are just projections based on current and past records and may change.


1.南美洲的巴西——自然资源丰富,幅员辽阔,食物丰富,阳光充足,海滩、海岸线、水域、大自然。巴西是南美的地区霸主(已经是了),因为它控制着南美近一半的土地面积,尽管所有其他南美和中美洲国家都说西班牙语,但它仍然沿用葡萄牙语。


2.南非——海岸线长,自然资源丰富,盛产农副产品、粮食、水和阳光。拥有成为非洲南部地区霸主的实力(在一定程度上已经是了)。


3.印度尼西亚——东南亚面积和人口最多的国家,国家,有皿煮历史(在一定程度上),没有重大的宗教分裂,阳光充足,海岸线,沙滩,一些自然资源。可以成为东南亚的强国(已经在尝试成为)。


4.埃及——几乎算是最强大、人口最多的阿拉伯国家,尼罗河三角洲拥有丰富的水资源,这与其他阿拉伯国家不同。


这些只是基于当前和历史形势的预测,可能会发生变化。


 


Shekhar Gowardhan


We cant exclude these countries to next 100 years from such race.if We go continent wise then we realize why..


1.North America: USA is already a superpower over here which may be not remain in next decade. remaining countries dont have such potential



  1. South America: Brazil is a developing country but corruption in government not a good news for them. Other countries like Argentina,Venezuela already fighting with there own domestic problems.

  2. Europe: after a WWII these continent lost their flora & fauna. France,England & Germany are developed countries & they have extra-ordinary weapons. But they dont have such good standing forces which can fight face to face. Since last year its proved they cant fight against even terrorism.

  3. Africa: Most of African countries still fighting with basic needs of life.

  4. Australia: Geographical location of this continent is far away from main other land. Its not convenient to be a superpower.


我们不能把这些国家排除在未来100年的竞赛之外。如果我们以各个大洲来观察,我们就会明白为什么…


1.北美:美国已经是该地区的超级大国,可能无法在未来十年继续保持下去。剩下的国家没有这样的潜力。


2.南美:巴西是一个发展中国家,但政府腐败对他们来说不是好事。阿根廷、委内瑞拉等其他国家也在与国内问题作斗争。


3.欧洲:二战后,这片大陆生灵涂炭,寸草不生。法国、英国和德国是发达国家,他们有出色的武器。但是他们没有游戏的常备部队应对战争。自去年以来,事实证明他们甚至连打击恐怖主义都做不到。


4.非洲:大多数非洲国家仍在与基本的生活需求作斗争。



  1. 澳大利亚:这个大陆的地理位置远离其他大陆。成为超级大国并非易事。

  2. Asia: For next 100 years we cant exclude Asia from superpower race.


My favor goes to India. To be a superpower any country need Good Economical condition, well disciplined security forces & talented peoples.


Russia is just big country nowadays with old technology & demolished political approach so they are not in race here.


China have that all potential points that i mentioned above. big country,big security forces with technology & weapons.


India have power to lead good countries in this world. India is not a attacking & not expansionist. India is good knowledge partner also to other countries. But problem is political will & surrounded by two worse attacking countries.one Pakistan the leader of terrorism & China the expansionist.


As its Disciplined country my favor goes to India!!


6.亚洲:未来100年,我们不能把亚洲排除在超级大国的竞争之外。


我支持印度。要成为超级大国,任何国家都需要良好的经济条件、纪律严明的安全部队和人才。


俄罗斯现在只是个大国,技术陈旧,政治手段陈旧,所以他们无法参与竞争。


中国拥有我上面提到的所有潜力点。一个拥有技术和武器的大国,一支强大的安全部队。


印度有能力引领全球各个国家。印度不是一个进攻型和扩张型国家。印度也是其他国家的良好的知识合作伙伴。但问题在于印度的政治意愿,还被两个更具攻击性的国家所包围:巴基斯坦和中国。


作为一个纪律严明的国家,我更喜欢印度!


 


Raymond Lockey, former Goodwill Ambassador the the PRC for the US Department of Commerce


If Prime Minister Abe changes the Japanese Constitution to allow Japan to once again have a standing military service—not a defense force—being it is among the world’s top ten populations, has the third largest economy and is highly advanced technologically and quite capable of developing advanced weapon systems as evident by its space industry and its development of its own advanced stealth fighter plan (even though it is buying the US F-35), it would be the top pick.


The second pick would be Brazil, which is also among the top ten populations in the world, reasonably technologically advanced, has a large geographical territory with natural commodity and energy resources, and Japan has an aircraft and space industry making strides every year. Also like Japan, it has nuclear power and the ability to develop nuclear weapons if it wished. Unlike Japan, its economy is in a shambles, its political system is very corrupt and is also at the brink and both have had an effect on its currency valuation.


如果安倍首相改变日本宪法,允许日本再次组建军事服务力量—非防御力量—日本人口位于全球十大人口之内,是全球第三大经济体,具有高度发达的科技和研发先进武器系统的能力,这从其航天工业和自助研发的先进隐形战斗机中就可见一斑,日本是第一选择。


第二个选择将是巴西,它也是世界十大人口国之一,技术相当先进,拥有广袤土地、自然商品和能源资源,飞机和航天工业每年都在大步前进。与日本一样,巴西也拥有核力量,也有能力发展核武器。与日本不同的是,巴西的经济一片混乱,处于崩溃边缘,这两点都对其货币估值产生了影响。


 


Ian Bremmer, political scientist


Japan. Because, aside from China and the United States, they're the most likely to first develop artificial intelligence. The economy is strongly oriented toward R&D in automation, robotics and AI;


日本。因为,除了中国和美国,日本最有可能研发人工智能。中国经济正大力转向自动化、机器人和人工智能领域的研发;


 


Alex Rounds, Writer, Culinarian, Musician, Wisenheimer.


Great Britain used to be a great superpower, and I think they can again. But I suspect they would not be so motivated. What drove them before was the massive power they could extract from their widespread military and trade franchises.


Britain saw the effects of their taking and rejected it, so by the end of the First World War, they were far less a presence, and by the middle of the century began releasing the remaining colonies. The effects of Great Britain’s glory days are still felt today, from the almost universal use of English as a second language, to legal systems and parliamentary system.


If the world needs another superpower, Great Britain is my vote, but you need a way to pay for it, and in the past that was a real sore point among all its colonies


英国曾经是一个超级大国,我认为他们可以再次成为超级大国。但我怀疑他们没有多大动力。以前驱使他们的是他们可以从广泛的军事和贸易专营权中获得巨大的权力。


英国在第一次世界大战结束时,他们的存在感开始减弱,到本世纪中叶开始释放剩余的殖民地。从几乎普遍使用英语作为第二语言,到法律制度和议会制度,英国辉煌时期的影响沿袭至今。


如果世界需要另一个超级大国,我肯定投英国一票。


 


Rajat Gupta, studied at India


No one, USA is the last superpower and after that no country will achieve that amount of status. We will not see unipolar world in which a country is powerful as USA was in 90s after splitting of USSR. However we will see multipolar world in which regional superpowers such as China, India, Japan, Russia, South Africa and USA will combine to dominate the world.


A country is superpower not because of its military and economical dominance but because of its soft power. No country has impact on other countries through its pop culture, movies, language, cuisine, MNCs etc like USA. Thus i believe that nobody can achieve status superpower unless a country has soft power comparable to USA.


没有了,美国是最后一个超级大国,在它之后,没有一个国家能达到其巅峰位置。我们不会再见证哪个国家能像90年代苏联后的美国那样强大的单极世界。然而,我们将看到一个多极世界,在这个世界里,中国、印度、日本、俄罗斯、南非和美国等地区超级大国将联合起来主宰世界。


一个国家之所以成为超级大国,不是因为它的军事和经济优势,而是因为它的软实力。没有哪个国家能像美国那样通过流行文化、电影、语言、美食、跨国企业等对其他国家产生影响。因此,我认为,除非一个国家拥有与美国相当的软实力,否则没有哪个国家能成为超级大国。


 


Anonymous


It is impossible to tell that a single country has the greatest potential to become the world’s next superpower. Looking at the present and the future, UK, Australia and South Africa have a slim chance of becoming a superpower but on the other side there are countries like Saudi Arabia (oil), Japan (nuclear power, human resource & technology), Germany (technology & economy), France (economy & global player), Switzerland (economy & money), South Korea (technology) and lastly Israel (military, human resource) have great potential to become a superpower. Other significant countries that possess the potential to become a superpower are :-



  1. i) Iran

  2. ii) Turkey


iii) Pakistan



  1. iv) Italy

  2. v) Brazil

  3. vi) Venezuela


vii) Canada


viii) Singapore


哪个国家最有潜力成为世界下一个超级大国?很难说。看看现在和未来,英国、澳大利亚和南非成为超级大国的机会很渺茫,但另一方面有像沙特阿拉伯这样的国家(石油),日本(核电、人力资源与技术),德国(科技与经济),法国(经济与全球玩家),瑞士(经济&资本),韩国(科技),最后是以色列(军事、人力资源),都有很大的潜力成为超级大国。其他有潜力成为超级大国的国家有:


1)伊朗


2)土耳其


3)巴基斯坦


4)意大利


5)巴西


6)委内瑞拉


7)加拿大


8)新加坡


 


Todd Williams


Countries in Europe obviously are going to become superpowers. Japan also is becoming a superpower with a huge economy by producing many electronic objects. If you are talking about developing countries, Brazil and South Africa from the BRICS nations are really booming. However these two are not close to being a super power. By the way, India is not a super power yet. It is a potential superpower. But with an increase in gdp of about 10% per year, India is very much starting to become a superpower.


欧洲国家显然将成为超级大国。通过电子产品制造,日本也正在成为一个拥有庞大经济体量的超级大国。如果你指的是发展中国家,那么来自金砖国家的巴西和南非正在蓬勃发展。然而,这两个国家离超级大国的差距还很大。顺便说一下,印度还不是超级大国。它只是一个潜在的超级大国。但是随着GDP以每年10%的速度增长,印度正慢慢崛起为超级大国。


 


Abhishek Agarwal, Nothing to say


How do you define a superpower?


Taking few words from PM Modi’s last interview with TimesNow “The world order has changed, it is no more a bipolar world now. The world will be now more interconnected and interdependent.” I don't think we will ever see a time where one country exerts the same power that U.S does today. The word superpower doesn’t tell us anything that's not subjective, is it military strength or financial might? Maybe it's both ? So there's no easy way to tell when someone becomes a superpower. That said I think “superpowers” of the future will have Foreign policies to exert their influence, not based on just Military and economy.


你如何定义超级大国?


莫迪总理在接受《泰晤士报》采访时曾说:“世界秩序已经改变,不再是两极世界。世界将更加紧密相连、相互依存。”我不认为有哪个国家能拥有和美国同样的力量。所以,要想知道一个国家何时能成为超级大国并不容易。也就是说,我认为未来的“超级大国”将拥有能够发挥其影响力的外交政策,而不仅仅基于军事和经济。


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