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哪个发展中国家将成为下一个发达国家

来源:  BBSGood社区    时间:2019-04-16 10:00:45   关注:122   转发


What developing country will become the next developed nation?


哪个发展中国家将成为下一个发达国家?


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Quora读者的评论:


Darrell Francis, Economics BA, International Administration MA


This largely depends on how you define "developed". There are many countries in Eastern Europe which teeter on the edge of this definition. They have all the infrastructure from the Communist-era and many are now members of the EU, but incomes are much lower and they still receive development aid and have many social problems. Often, development is uneven. While Bratislava might be a beautiful, modern city, the rest of Slovakia is substantially poorer.


I attempted to make an objective measure using data from the United Nations Statistics Division, but I found that most definitions I used were surprisingly strict. I started by defining which countries were considered developed in 1970 and finding their aggregate GDP per capita each year since then. I then defined a developed country as one with a GDP per capita that was 50% or more than the aggregate of the predefined developed countries (excluding oil-dependent countries).


Using this definition, the only countries to become "developed" since 1970 were Cyprus, Portugal, Singapore, Slovenia, and South Korea  At this rate, we might only see 2 or 3 countries join their ranks in the near future. Of the 8 countries closest to reaching the 50% barrier, all are in the EU (Malta, Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Croatia, and Lithuania). Chile is about the only other country in the running, but it would have to match South Korea's record growth to break the 50% barrier in the next 20 years. If we lower the barrier to 40%, Latvia, Mexico, and Turkey have a fair chance.


这在很大程度上取决于您如何定义“发达国家”。东欧有许多国家在这一定义的边缘摇摇欲坠。许多国家目前是欧盟成员国,但收入要低得多,仍然接受发展援助,存在许多社会问题。发展常常很不均衡。尽管伯拉第斯拉瓦可能是座美丽的现代化城市,但斯洛伐克的其他地区却穷得多。


我想用联合国统计司的数据来进行客观的衡量,但我发现我使用的大多数条件都非常严苛。我首先选出了1970年被视为发达国家的一批国家,并计算了自那以后每年的人均国内生产总值。然后,我将发达国家定义为人均GDP超过预先确定的发达国家(不包括依赖石油经济的国家)总和50%或以上的国家。


按照这个定义,自1970年以来,只有塞浦路斯、葡萄牙、新加坡、斯洛文尼亚和韩国成为“发达国家”。按照这个速度,在不久的将来,我们可能只会看到两三个国家加入这个行列。8个接近50%门槛的国家都在欧盟(马耳他、捷克共和国、爱沙尼亚、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、波兰、克罗地亚和立陶宛)。智利大概是唯一一个备选国家,但要想在未来20年突破50%的门槛,它必须赶上韩国创纪录的增长速度。如果我们把这个门槛降低到40%,拉脱维亚、墨西哥和土耳其尚有机会。


 


Randy McDonald, B.A. English Literature & Anthropology, Queen's University at Kingston


Looking at the World Bank’s list of high-income economies, what becomes apparent is that a few unfortunate countries have dropped out of this category on account of their economic woes. Croatia, for instance, dropped out of this category in 2015 owing to lagging economic growth bringing it below the minimum threshold, while Russia’s brief tenure from 2012–2014 was ended by—among other things—the falling price of oil and the effect of sanctions. Argentina and Venezuela did briefly rank as high-income economies in 2014, but fell out of this category subsequently, Venezuela much more catastrophically than Argentina.


If we are to assume that “developing country” is synonymous with “Third World country”, i.e. a country that was part of neither the Western nor the Soviet blocs in the Cold War, two strong candidates are Argentina and Venezuela. Although currently relatively poor by the standards of high-income economies, these countries have traditionally been quite wealthy by world standards and even, before the 1970s, ranked reasonably highly on international income rankings. Of these two countries, I would say that Argentina, with the more diversified economy and stabler political system, is more likely to become a developed country than a Venezuela undergoing a general meltdown. Chile, which has made consistent progress since the end of the Pinochet dictatorship, is another possibility.


译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/47397.html  译者:Joyceliu


看看世界银行的高收入经济体名单,显而易见的是,一些不幸的国家由于经济困境而退出了这一类别。例如,由于经济增长滞后,克罗地亚在2015年退出了发达国家之列,而俄罗斯自2012年到2014年后又陷于沉寂,原因之一是油价下跌和制裁的影响。2014年,阿根廷和委内瑞拉曾短暂跻身高收入经济体之列,但随后就被挤出了阵营,委内瑞拉的遭遇比阿根廷更具灾难性。


如果我们假定“发展中国家”是“第三世界国家”的同义词,即在冷战中既不属于西方集团也不属于苏联集团的国家,那么两个强有力的候选国是阿根廷和委内瑞拉。虽然按照高收入经济体的标准来看,这些国家目前相对贫穷,但按照世界标准来看,它们传统上相当富有,甚至在上世纪70年代以前,它们在国际收入排行榜上的排名也相当高。我认为,在这两个国家中,阿根廷的经济更加多样化,政治制度更加稳定,更有可能成为一个发达国家,而委内瑞拉正面临全面崩溃。智利也有可能,自皮诺切特独材统治结束以来该国一直在进步。


 


Gabriel De Luca


I don't know the only one next coutry that will become developed but I'm going to list some of my guesses by priority:


NOTE: I'm not saying that all countries will develop step by step all at the same time, it will just flow gradually, some countries from different steps will develop first or lag behind.


1) Potential countries to join the Eurozone: Hungary, Poland, maybe Romania...


2) EU enlargement: Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina... (I'm expecting some economic miracle like the "Balkan Tigers" like what happened in the Baltic).


3) The Tiger Cub Economies: Malaysia, The Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand (Maybe Brunei and Vietnam in the future)


4) The Gulf Countries (Highly speculative, debatable): UAE, Quatar, Bahrain. Maybe Kwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman, (only if those countries diversify their economies in time)


5) The Pacific Pumas (debatable): Chile, Mexico and Colombia. (It is quite improbable but Peru can be added to the team)


5.1) Futher EU enlargement? Maybe?: Ukraine and Turkey(?).


5.2) Argentina maybe?


6) BRICS: China, Brasil, India, Russia and maybe South Africa. These countries are not higher in this priority list because they (not counting S. Africa) have a HUGE population and a HUGE territory, it's a bit hard to develop fast with those conditions.


7) The debatable countries: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt and Nigeria.


8) The even more debatable countries: Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Iraq(?).


我不知道下一个发达国家会是谁,但我将按优先顺序列出我的一些猜测:


注:我并不是说所有的国家都会在同一时间一步一步地发展,而是会循序渐进地发展,有些国家走在前面,有些国家走在后面。


1)可能加入欧元区的国家:匈牙利、波兰,或许还有罗马尼亚……


2)欧盟扩大:马其顿、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那……(我期待出现像波罗的海“巴尔干四小龙”那样的经济奇迹)。


3)亚洲四小虎:马来西亚、菲律宾、印度尼西亚和泰国(未来可能是文莱和越南)


4)海湾国家(高度投机,有争议):阿联酋,卡塔尔,巴林。或许是科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿曼(除非这些国家及时实现经济多元化)


5)太平洋美洲狮(有争议):智利、墨西哥和哥伦比亚。(虽然可能性很低,但秘鲁也可以算作一个)


5.1)欧盟进一步扩大?也许?:乌克兰和土耳其(?)


5.2)也许还有阿根廷?


金砖四国:中国、巴西、印度、俄罗斯,或许还有南非。这些国家的排名并不靠前,因为他们(不包括南非)拥有庞大的人口和领土,很难快速发展。


7)争议国家:孟加拉国、巴基斯坦、伊朗、埃及和尼日利亚。


8)争议更大的国家:斯里兰卡、缅甸、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和伊拉克(?)


 


Martin Devasia, studied at St Augustine's College


Most answers here say that countries like UAE, Qatar and Bahrain and even Kuwait are still developing countries, but given that the most important metrics for development are HDI and GDP per capita (GDP distributed evenly among the Population) we can see that all the above mentioned countries score really high on these metrics, for example how can Qatar still be a developing country when it is the world’s richest country? UAE is also one of the most richest countries in the world as well as Kuwait, so how can these countries be developing? in addition to that one characteristic all developed countries share is the fact that they have low growth rates, a typical developed country grows at 1–2% annually, all the above mentioned countries grow around the same rate, now here are the countries I believe will become developed in the next 20 years:


Malaysia (HDI: 0.779 GDP per capita: $10,538.06)


Oman (HDI: 0.793 GDP per capita: $21,929.01)


Turkey (HDI: 0.761 GDP per capita: $10,971.66)


Sri Lanka (HDI: 0.757 GDP per capita: $3,279.89)


Poland (HDI: 0.855 GDP per capita: $13,647.96)


Saudi Arabia (HDI: 0.782 GDP per capita: $25,961.81)


If you have any suggestions I can update the list.


大多数答案提到了阿联酋、卡塔尔和巴林甚至科威特这些国家仍然是发展中国家,但是考虑到发展的最重要的指标是人类发展指数(HDI)和人均国内生产总值(人均GDP),我们可以看到,所有上述国家在这些指标上的得分很高,例如卡塔尔是世界上最富有的国家,怎么还只是发展中国家?阿联酋和科威特一样也是世界上最富有的国家之一,那么这些国家怎么会是发展中国家呢?除此之外所有发达国家的一个共同特征是,他们的增长率较低,典型发达国家每年增长1 - 2%,所有上述国家的增长速度都相同,我相信以下国家将在未来20年成为发达国家:


马来西亚(HDI: 0.779人均GDP: 10,538.06美元)


阿曼(HDI: 0.793人均GDP: 21,929.01美元)


土耳其(HDI: 0.761人均GDP: 10,971.66美元)


斯里兰卡(HDI: 0.757人均GDP: 3,279.89美元)


波兰(HDI: 0.855人均GDP: 13,647.96美元)


沙特阿拉伯(HDI: 0.782:人均GDP: 25961.81美元)


 


Shahrul Nizam, Bachelor Degree Management, University of Selangor (2005)


Since gaining independence in 1957, Malaysia has successfully diversified its economy from one that was initially agriculture and commodity-based, to one that now plays host to robust manufacturing and services sectors, that have propelled it to become a leading exporter of electrical appliances, electronic parts and components.


Malaysia is one of the most open economies in the world, with a trade to GDP ratio averaging over 130 percent since 2010. Openness to trade and investment have been instrumental in employment creation and income growth, with about 40 percent of jobs in Malaysia linked to export activities. After the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998, Malaysia’s economy has been on an upward trajectory, averaging growth of 5.4 percent since 2010, and is expected to achieve its transition from an upper middle-income economy to a high-income economy by 2024.


自1957年获得独立以来,马来西亚已成功实现了经济多元化,从最初以农业和大宗商品为基础的经济,转变为如今拥有强劲制造业和服务业的经济。制造业和服务业助力马来西亚成为电器、电子零部件的主要出口国。


马来西亚是世界上最开放的经济体之一,自2010年以来,贸易占GDP的比例平均超过13%。对贸易和投资的开放在创造就业和收入增长方面发挥了重要作用,马来西亚约40%的就业与出口活动有关。1997-1998年亚洲金融危机后,马来西亚经济一直处于上升轨道,2010年以来平均增长5.4%,预计到2024年将实现从中上收入经济体向高收入经济体的转型。


 


Mehran Janghorbani, Use economic theories in my work almost daily


Very interesting question with a really difficult answer, basically three factors are required for economic growth (Todaro, 1994):


1) capital accumulation


2) workforce growth


3) technological advances


I suggest that you do an exercise and post the results here for us all, create an excel sheet and multiply the amount of their capital account balance x their rate of population growth x the amount of money they spend in R&D


The countries with the highest numbers should be the ones to watch out for with a good degree of confidence. Remember to adjust your numbers for PPP


Hope this helps


N.B: I wrote this in a hurry and could not consult the literature, if anyone knows of better metrics to represent the three factors or if someone wants to propose a more complicated model, I would be very happy if you could comment and correct me.


这是一个非常有趣的问题,很难回答,基本上经济增长需要三个因素(Todaro, 1994):


1)资本积累


2)劳动力增长


3)技术的进步


我建议你做一个练习,把结果贴在这里,然后创建一个excel表格,把他们的资本账户余额乘以他们的人口增长率乘,再乘以他们在研发上的投入


得数最高的国家应该是那些有足够信心的国家。记住要根据购买力平价调整你的数字


希望这个回答能有点帮助。


我写得很匆忙,没有查阅文献,如果有人知道有更好的指标能取代这三个因素,或者有人能提出一个更复杂的模型,欢迎评论指教,我会乐意接受。


 


Ben Zupnick, Political and Development Economist, Blogger


Mr. Sims answer is a pretty solid list, it really depends on your definition of "developed". Are you talking about macroeconomics, or a more human centered approach (including political freedoms / human rights, no extreme poverty, relatively egalitarian gains, etc; the much more difficult goal to attain but much more important in terms of "sustainable" gained). This more holistic approach to development is sometimes known as "modernization".


The NYT published an article today highlighting Africa's development prospects / pitfalls. On one hand, there have been gains in FDI, personal consumption, and extreme poverty alleviation, important aspects of development. On the other hand, these countries remain extremely unequal and lack many infrastructures most people would associate with development (particularly in rural areas). They also suffer from extreme corruption, insecurity / armed conflict, and rely too heavily on extractive industries (not a recipe for sustainable development).  


I would add Nigeria to the list as well. I also think the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) must all be considered "developing", despite any social problems present in those countries.


Sims先生的答案是一个相当可靠的列表,这真的取决于你对“发达国家”的定义。你是在谈论宏观经济学,还是更加以人为本(包括政治自由/人全、没有极端贫困、相对平等的收入等?)。这种更全面的发展途径有时被称为“现代化”。


《纽约时报》今天发表了一篇文章,强调非洲的发展前景/陷阱。一方面,在外国直接投资、个人消费和极端扶贫等发展的重要方面取得了进展。另一方面,这些国家仍然极不平等,缺乏普罗大众能使用的基础设施(尤其是农村地区)。他们还遭受极端腐败、不安全/武装冲突带来的苦难,严重依赖采掘业(并非可持续发展的良方)。


我还要把尼日利亚也列入这个名单。我还认为,金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非)都必须被视为“发展中国家”,尽管这些国家存在这样那样的社会问题。


 


Carleone Saga, Still a studying student that is truly a Filipino.


There are several countries most likely to be developed. These countries are very close to becoming developed, which is just so sad but already exciting because they are almost at the finish line.


1.Poland


2.Malaysia


3.Romania


4.Russia


5.Turkey


6.United Arab Emirates


7.Panama


8.Croatia


9.Brunei


10.Oman


11.Bahrain


有几个国家最有可能成为发达国家。这些国家非常接近发达国家,非常接近了。


1.波兰


2.马来西亚


3.罗马尼亚


4.俄罗斯


5.土耳其


6.阿拉伯联合酋长国


7.巴拿马


8.克罗地亚


9.文莱


10.阿曼


11.巴林


These are just some examples. Here are other countries most likely to be developed. Newly industrialized countries are already included in the list, since they are a transition from developing to developed. These ones are not in order.


1.Philippines


2.Kuwait


3.Thailand


4.Mauritius


5.Seychelles


6.Botswana


7.Mexico


8.China


9.Indonesia


10.Peru


11.Bulgaria


12.Costa Rica


13.Hungary


14.Qatar


15.Saudi Arabia


16.Kazakhstan


17.Sri Lanka


18.Macedonia


19.Bosnia and Herzegovina


20.Albania


21.Serbia


22.South Africa


这些只是一些例子。以下是其他最有可能发展的国家。新晋工业化国家已经被列入名单,因为它们处在从发展中国家向发达国家的过渡阶段。以下列表并无先后顺序。


1.菲律宾


2.科威特


3.泰国


4.毛里求斯


5.塞舌尔


6.博茨瓦纳


7.墨西哥


8.中国


9.印尼


10.秘鲁


11.保加利亚


12.哥斯达黎加


13.匈牙利


14.卡塔尔


15.沙特阿拉伯


16.哈萨克斯坦


17.斯里兰卡


18.马其顿


19.波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那


20.阿尔巴尼亚


21.塞尔维亚


22.南非


Bonus countries:


1.Brazil


2.India


There is a chance that the developing ones become developed ones. They just need to solve a few issues to their country. Yet Brazil and India is close, but they have a long way to go before they are considered developed countries. Needless to say, they have a chance to be a developed country.


潜力国家:


1.巴西


2.印度


发展中国家有可能成为发达国家。他们只需要解决自己国家的某些问题。巴西和印度很相似,但要成为发达国家,它们还有很长的路要走。但不用说,他们有机会成为发达国家。


 


Ashish Govil, studied at India


Instinctively China, India and a whole host of Asian names come to mind. However we need to segregate the reasons from where their wealth will come from to propel them to developed scales.


Large populations, dependence on agriculture income, manufacturing locally can get you past the poor to developing stage but it is arguable it will allow to reach the developed stages. countries with small populations and a novel idea of development have the most chances to make it in 20 years, a remarkably short time in history of countries.


Perhaps Dubai, Panama, Chile, Malaysia have the best chances to leap ahead of the other lots.


中国、印度和一大堆亚洲名字下意识地浮现在我的脑海中。然而,我们需要区分他们的财富来源,推动他们达到发达的规模的原因。


大量的人口,对农业收入的依赖,当地的制造业可以让你摆脱贫困,进入发展阶段,但能否让他们跻身发达国家之列,尚存疑虑。人口少、发展理念新颖的国家在20年内实现这一目标的机会最大,这在各国历史上都是非常短暂的时间。


也许迪拜,巴拿马,智利,马来西亚拥有最大的机会超越其他国家。


 


Liam Chandler, lives on Earth, dual citizen of the Andromeda Galaxy


Poland's at the top of my list to make the biggest change relative to their current position. They're the "silicon valley of europe", and have been making a complete economic name for themselves.


在我列出的名单上,波兰是改变目前现状机会最大的国家。他们是“欧洲的硅谷”,并一直在为自己创造一个完整的经济产业。


 


Orlando Barrios, works at Miskatonic University


What country is most likely to become a developed economy next?


Please don't answer with how HDI is a degrading statistic, that people's happiness matters more than economic development, or the sort. That can be true, but that isn't the question. Thank you.::


Argentina would be already classified as a developed country if its mortality and birth rates were lower. The day it improves these indicators, it will be (finally!) considered a developed.


Chile is another strong candidate for the title.


最有可能成为下一个发达经济体的国家是哪个?


请不要回答人类发展指数是多么不靠谱,人们的幸福比经济发展之类的东西更重要。这可能是真的,但那不是问题所在。谢谢。


如果阿根廷的死亡率和出生率低一些,它早被列为发达国家了。等它改进这些指标的那一天,它将(最终!)被承认为发达国家。


智利是另一个实力强劲的候选国。


 


Jurjen van der Laan, studied at Wageningen University


The IMF describes countries with a GNI per capita of more than $15000 as advanced economies.


Countries that have an GNI of almost $15000 are:


Chile: $13530


Argentina: $11960


Uruguay: $15230 (but somehow not categorized as advanced economy)


Panama: $12140


Costa Rica: $10840


Poland: $12680


Hungary: $12570


In a couple of years also countries like Malaysia, Romania and Mauritius will follow, and later on Brazil and China.


Also some gulf nations like the UAE and Qatar have a very high GNI per capita, but are still not categorized as advanced economies


国际货币基金组织将人均国民总收入超过1.5万美元的国家称为发达经济体。


国民总收入接近15000美元的国家包括:


智利:13530美元


阿根廷:11960美元


乌拉圭:15230美元(但不知何故,还未被归类为发达经济体)


巴拿马:12140美元


哥斯达黎加:10840美元


波兰:12680美元


匈牙利:12570美元


几年后,马来西亚、罗马尼亚和毛里求斯等国也将紧随其后,随后就是巴西和中国。


此外,阿联酋和卡塔尔等海湾国家的人均国民生产总值也很高,但还未被列为发达经济体。


 


Andrew Cornelison, History buff, an expert in 20th century historical events


Next one would probably be Poland due to its close proximity to the EU and after 10 years of membership in the EU, and its nearing close to being developed. It has updated infrastructure after its communist era, its people fleeing the country are declining, and manufacturing in Poland is declining, which means that it will have a variety of imports, like medical, cars, computers, etc…


Other possible ones would be: Hungary, UAE, South Africa, Mexico, Argentina, and Chile.


下一个可能的国家是波兰,因为波兰与欧盟关系密切,而且在加入欧盟10年后,波兰已接近发达国家。波兰升级了基础设施,逃离波兰的人越来越少,在波兰的制造业也在下降,这意味着波兰将有各种各样的进口商品,比如医疗、汽车、电脑等……


其他可能的国家包括:匈牙利、阿联酋、南非、墨西哥、阿根廷和智利。


 


Guglielmo Tell


The key criterion to judge development/underdevelopment is economic structures formed through History with evolution of property structure as a series of snapshots.


The economy wass inwards-oriented at first and then started projecting itself outwards or was mono-export from the start and never closed the circle of supply to domestic market down.


Market, same as everything, functions in 3D, the 3rd is the income strata. The “progress” is not for all the strata. Every upper stratum solves its own problems at expenses of pushing the next inferior one downwards (vertically) or over the edge (horizontally)


判断发达/不发达的关键标准是历史形成的经济结构。


经济首先是内向型的,然后开始向外扩张,或者从一开始就是单一出口,从来没有关闭国内市场的供给循环。


市场,如同其他一切事务一般,都有三个维度,第三个维度就是收入阶层。“进步”并不适用于所有阶层。每一个上层社会都要解决自己的问题,代价是把下一个下层社会往下推(垂直方向)或推到边缘(水平方向)。


 


Joseph Kuan


Some great answers here, but I will say it depends on whose definition of developed countries you want to use, how they shift the goalpost in the future, and most importantly who they want to let into the club. Right now there are 39 nations defined as developed out of the 195 sovereign nations according to UN definition, exactly 20%. If some organization change their criterion and the 20% is going to maintain, that means some at the bottom rung will have to drop off to make way for others. It also means there ain’t many new countries that will make it into the list as those top dogs are gonna be difficult to get knock off in any forseeable future. If they adopt a static goalpost of HDI and GDP per capita eventually many nations will make it into the list which makes the distinction rather meaningless. If they adopt a changing goalpost of GDP per capita, those at the borderline will be at their mercy whether they are allowed into the club. Therefore chasing for developed country status in my opinion is a rather futile goal. I would rather see the government focus on quantifiable economic growth, improvement in living standard, education, healthcare, judicial system, eliminating corruption etc.


我在这里看到了一些很好的答案,但我要说的是,这取决于你想套用哪个国家对发达国家的定义,他们未来如何改变目标,以及最重要的是,他们想让谁加入这个俱乐部。目前,根据联合国的定义,在195个主权国家中,发达国家占39个,占20%。如果一些组织改变他们的标准,20%的国家想要保持自己的地位,这意味着靠后的国家将不得不放弃,为其他人让路。这也意味着不会有很多新国家进入榜单,因为在可预见的未来,这些排名靠前的国家将很难被淘汰。如果他们采用HDI和人均GDP的静态目标,最终许多国家将会进入这个名单,这使得这一差别变得毫无意义。如果他们改变人均国内生产总值的目标,那些处于边界的人将取决于他们是否被允许加入这个俱乐部。因此,在我看来,追求发达国家的地位是一个相当虚无缥缈的目标。我更希望看到政府关注可量化的经济增长、生活水平的提高、教育、医疗、司法体系、消除腐败现象等等。


 


Vincent Maldia


Probably not china since it probably already is developed depending on what metrics you use. But in some things like in postal rates and CO2 emissions limits it claims that it is still developing. A little dishonest IMHO but it works and they get an advantage


Probably one of the ASEAN countries.


可能不会是中国,因为它可能已经是发达国家了,这取决于您使用的度量标准。但在某些方面,比如邮政费率和二氧化碳排放限制方面,中国坚持称自己还是发展中国家。恕我直言,有点不诚信,但这个做法很有效,他们占到了便宜。


可能会出现在东盟国家中。


 


Nelson Chan, writes about fintech for a living


All of them… it’s just a question of timeframe


所有国家都会…只是时间早晚的问题


 


Divya Gangadar, An intelligent layperson!


Whichever country America decides to be called 'developed'


无论哪个国家,都要由美国来决定他能否称为“发达国家”


 


Kushagra Hardikar, I know nothing LOL!!


Most of the people must be thinking about India. I think so India has capability to become next developed nation but there are more nations like Brazil which will I think come first. I mean see per capita also. We lack behind very much…


大多数人肯定认为是印度。我认为印度有能力成为下一个发达国家,但是有更多像巴西这样的国家,我认为巴西会是第一个。我的意思是看人均数据,我们还落后很多…


 


Mauricio Garcia G, Student


In the next 20 years a lot of countries will cross the line. Some are expected to do it before the next 5 years like the UAE, Qatar, Morocco, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Turkey and so on. Other countries will take longer because of a larger economy like Mexico, Brazil, India and China. Although some of this countries already have a significant percent of development already.


在未来20年里,许多国家都将越过这条线。预计一些国家就将在未来5年内实现这一目标,如阿联酋、卡塔尔、摩洛哥、乌拉圭、哥斯达黎加、土耳其等。墨西哥、巴西、印度和中国等更大的经济体将需要更长的时间。其中一些国家已经取得了显著的发展。


 


Saivikas Billa, studied at Vignan Vidyalayam


The few countries and states that will be developed in a few years:


1.India- Bangalore, Hyderabad, Mumbai,Chennai, Kolkata, and Delhi


2.China- Beijing, Shanghai,


3.Brazil- Espirito santo, Acre, Alagoras


将在几年内达到发达国家水平的少数国家和邦/省份有:


1.印度—班加罗尔、海德拉巴、孟买、金奈、加尔各答和德里


2.中国—北京,上海,


3.巴西—圣埃斯皮里托,阿克里,阿拉戈拉斯


 


Darrell Francis, Economics BA, International Administration MA


I believe South Korea is the first and, so far, only country to make the full transition. In 1970, South Korea's GDP per capita was only 6% of that of the US, similar to modern day Egypt. Other countries have become developed since then, but they started from a better position and could hardly be called "undeveloped" at any point in recent history.


As for who could be next, my bet is on a South American country, namely Argentina, Chile, or Uruguay. Their per capita GDP is not that far below that of developed countries and they rank well on the inequality-adjusted HDI and the Failed States Index. However, they've come close before only to have the rug pulled out from under them.


There's an interesting pattern to their economic growth, where they peak every twenty years only to come to a grinding halt. Relative to developed economies, the economies of Argentina, Chile, Uruguay peaked in the mid-1970's and the mid-1990's. As they are currently growing again, it will be interesting to see if history repeats itself or if they can break the cycle.


If for some reason they don't make it, my next picks are Costa Rica, Malaysia, and Turkey. They all had strong economic growth this last decade and Malaysia and Turkey have strong industrial growth


我相信韩国是第一个,也是迄今为止唯一一个实现全面过渡的国家。1970年,韩国的人均GDP只有美国的6%,与今天的埃及相似。从那以后,其他国家已经发展起来了,但它们起步的位置更好,在近代史上任何时候都很难被界定为“不发达国家”。


至于下一个国家可能是谁,我赌南美国家,即阿根廷、智利或乌拉圭。这些国家的人均GDP并不比发达国家低多少,而且在人类发展指数和“失败国家”指数中排名靠前。


他们的经济增长有一个有趣的模式,每20年达到一个顶峰,然后就止步不前。与发达经济体相比,阿根廷、智利和乌拉圭的经济在20世纪70年代中期和90年代中期就曾达到顶峰。随着它们目前再次增长,让我们拭目以待,看看历史会不会重演,它们能否打破这种循环,将是一件有趣的事情。


如果由于某种原因他们没能成功,我的下一个选择是哥斯达黎加、马来西亚和土耳其。过去10年,它们都实现了强劲的经济增长,马来西亚和土耳其也实现了强劲的工业增长。


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